TimingSolution - новости, методы и т.д

[Сан Себастьян Перейра]

I tried to make more complicated wave that involves more waves.  If the track of this wavelet is fount => the correlation is positive.  This is a classical wavelet analysis applied for one cycle.

WFA is a totally different technology.  As a basis, it uses the projection line and watches how this projection line forecasts the future, i.e. more red regions - better forecast.

You see, there are two different approaches:
a) classical math = wavelet analysis = the technique that uses wavelet forms as Lego constructor to model phenomena
b) financial math - "guys, I have seen your nice forecasts many times, but somehow they do not work for me". So we model the "cold wind of reality", set LBC position etc. - walk forward analysis

I came to finance analysis from science and for me it took a lot of time to figure out the fact that financial data that can be perfectly explained by harmonic functions (sinus,cosine) can not be prolonged in future with these harmonic functions. This is the specific of financial data, effect of "fat tails" applied to harmonic analysis.


2) To Anup

When we run Easy expert or natural cycle or astro predictable zones, the high probability trades are indicated by thick arrows.

My question:
Is it possible to see the average rise or fall% of those high probability trades in the main screen along with the arrows?

In any case we can do that through efficiency test. But it would be really helpful if we can plot it in the main screen so that we can save the file and can use the file for any future date and we don't have to run the efficiency test time and again in future

Anup, you see, we have not enough room in the Main screen to display this information. Usually Main scree is very busy.

Please check the class about Easy expert module: http://www.timingsolution.com/TI/3/index.htm 

Advanced section, you will find an explanation there on how to find easily the statistical information about any arrow.

3) To Pandu Tadoori

I want to create a daily aspect calendor like the one Olga Morales uses.

I am at a total loss.

Can u guide me or if you already have Template for timing solution, will appreciate if you can forward it.


Pandu Tadoori, please check this class: http://www.timingsolution.com/TS/Mini/6/index.htm 

This subject is explained here in details. Also I plan to record a video regarding this subject.


4) To Martin Biber

I calculated NN ( two days ago. As I opened it today, one line looks very different. Does this make sense for you? The flatish line was very similar to the other two days ago.


Martin, this is a very typical problem for NN, it is called stochastic effect. Please check this class http://www.timingsolution.com/TS/FAQ/overtraining.pdf
Look at your last NN:

[Сан Себастьян Перейра]

As you see, the projection line is different now. In your particular case, you should do the training longer, the NN did not find yet its equilibrium point. Actually, this is unavoidable problem with NNs. I often receive questions while NN is changing. If it is really disturbing you, I would recommend to use Events Box. There the projection line stays stable.

Best regards.
Sergey.

[Сан Себастьян Перейра]

EUR hits an important low (25/11/2015)

https://youtu.be/wqeIwlb5Guo

[ksv]

EUR hits an important low (25/11/2015)

https://youtu.be/wqeIwlb5Guo

Игорь, респект!
Отличное видео !!!
Практически готовый композит  Правда даты немного отличаются от моих, но в целом похоже.


С уважением, Сергей

[Сан Себастьян Перейра]

Серег не моё, Ahmed Farghaly, так его зовут

[Сан Себастьян Перейра]

мои пятнашки, старшие фреймы ранее кидал

[Сан Себастьян Перейра]

Сергей Тарасов отвечает на вопросы

Hello, Ahmed:

Technically there is no problem adding customized cycles to dominant.
But I would like to show you the whole picture, the genesis of this .
Originally, I tried to do wavelets for astro cycles about ten years ago. I also tried to create a system that makes a forecast when wavelet areas are bright. I did some articles on these, and later deleted them.
Please look at this button in Composite:

[Сан Себастьян Перейра]

It allows to create predictable zones this way:

[Сан Себастьян Перейра]

Later dominant astro cycles appeared in the program. I understood then that mathematically speaking, the wavelets I did before are not what is needed for financial data. In pure math analysis, the task is to EXPLAIN some process, the process itself. For example, when we speak over the cellphone, our speech can be constructed from a series of wavelets; the numbers that describe that wavelet are transferred to the receiver. The task here is to describe our voice characteristics in the best way. (At least, this is what I have read in the articles re wavelets).
For financial data, we have a totally different task: we must made a FORECAST. In other words, it does not matter how well our wavelet describes the past. We are more interested in how well it may describe the future.
So, dealing with financial data, wavelet analysis is not that important as the Walk Forward Analysis (WFA). WFA shows the forecast ability of our models.
BTW, Robert Pardo, the inventor of this approach, is TS user and a member of this Yahoo Group.

OK. I would recommend you to use more the WFA diagrams that show how any cycle (Annual, etc) worked in time:

[Сан Себастьян Перейра]

You see last year Annual cycle worked good correlation=0.53 but in 2013 not good, correlation is negative = -0.23


If you would like to see how the dominant cycles work, just set some value for Stock Memory parameter:

[Сан Себастьян Перейра]

and calculate the WFA diagram for it.

I think it is much closer to what we are looking for.


Now, regarding your suggestion to do videos. First of all, thank you for that. Definitely, any your videos are welcome as you demonstrate a good understanding of TS materials.
I also plan to do videos on all major Classes, though it is a challenge to me.
But - I am more interested in gathering info how you, as a trader, apply all that. (I do not mind that you do Elliott with some other program).
Actually, many users asked me to add Elliott Waves to the software. Then It was too boring for me to code a simple count of waves. I will watch your videos more, it is possible we will find some proper analytical tools for that.

One more thing, the last today. Ahmed, could you please collect all your videos into one html file? I will provide a link for them on the website. Or send me your links.

Best regards,

Sergey

[aid]

всем привет.у меня проблемы с подключением реал-тайм.ТС-не находит куда советник с мт4 скидывает информацию.с ув

[Сан Себастьян Перейра]

http://www.timingsolution.com/TS/Mini/85/index.htm

[Сан Себастьян Перейра]

Kondriatieff Wave [1 Attachment]

[Сан Себастьян Перейра]

Egypt, The best investment of the 21st centuery

https://youtu.be/mYMhv2Iim8k