TimingSolution - новости, методы и т.д

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модельерам в помощь, Ахмед, в самом начале, показал (не упомянул) повторяшки на золоте

"The disphoria of Silver and a look at the Gold/Silver Ratio & the misery index"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yODteiyHXz4

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Перекликается с соседней веткой (нашей веткой)

I also have been following the demographics of the US which also suggest that the trend in spending should be declining. I have been following what Harry dent calls the "spending wave". It is the Birth Index adjusted for immigration with a 46 year lag. The rationale is that people reach their peak spending at age 46, so if the number of births was rising 46 years ago this suggests that stock prices are likely to go up due to more consumer spending considering that the number of people aged 46 are rising which means that they are at their spending peak. This indicator correlates very nicely with the DJIA adjusted for inflation. It accurately predicted the bust in japan and the boom of the 1990s in the US. This indicator peaked in 2010 and we are currently diverging due to unprecedented government stimulus, I am waiting for this thing to revert as is evident by the pictures I have posted, to take advantage of one of the best buying opportunity in history.

Regards,
Ahmed Farghaly

Hello, Ahmed and Group
Just my 10 cents to demography research. Few years ago analyzing Juglar cycle I have fond the the period of this cycles increases, may this is because lifetime expectancy increases.

http://www.timingsolution.com/TS/Forecast/2009_long_term/


Best regards.
Sergey.

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атачи Ахмеда

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.

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кому компотику?

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подарочек поработать в прицепе

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щас они в группе совместно субботы ИЗГОНЯЮТ из котировок DOW, пока ничего интересного

[Vadim]

щас они в группе совместно субботы удаляют из котировок DOW, пока ничего интересного

Интересно как суббота туда вообще попала

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х.з

[aid]

всем привет.нефть.с ув

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ух красота, а это отнейрено и застратегино? или в чем то другом?

[aid]

привет-нейро.с ув

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Hello, Ahmed

I simply did not do these research enough. The problem here is inflation factor i.e. price should be normalized somehow otherwise we will get statistic 100% price hoes up and this is true in 10 years the price for sugar, wheat, oil,metals ...  will high probability be higher than now.

Bill Meridian and I did research for long term wheat:

http://www.timingsolution.com/TS/Study/Wheat/

We did it with composite module. Take care to target function there to be sure that long term inflation trend is processed properly.  It is here:

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On 12/4/2015 10:15 PM, A Kumar loving_pal@yahoo.com [timingsolution] wrote:
 
Hi Sergey

I tried easy expert and upcoming events model on euro/usd daily historical data.

I selected the astrological criteria manually (aspects,position and retrograde)

In easy expert model it is indicating that euro/usd should fall between 18th-22nd January 2016 with 100% probability but in upcoming events it is not showing that. What could be the reason for this variance ? Where I went wrong ?

thanks
Anup

**********************************

Hello, Anup

You see, these two models work differently. Upcoming events module shows what happens when aspect culminates, like the day when X aspects culminates the price goes up. I.e. it analyses one day only - the day when aspects culminates - i.e. takes open and close for this day and compares them - i.e. price movement within this particular trading day.

Easy Expert works another way, it analyzes trend around culmination like withing 4 days before 5 days after culmination the price goes up. For the day of culmination may be happen nothing. In latest versions of Easy Expert covers Upcoming Events module.

One thing I plan to add to Easy Expert this is the possibility to analyze volatile zones (I tried to do it in Upcoming Events module). I.e.e to get results like this 5 days before 4 days after culmination the volatility is higher than average. To do proper research we have to calculate the average volatility within 9 days (control group) and compare it with movement around culmination. Actually this is not easy task we have to calculate distribution for control group to figure out what volatility values are high and low.

Best regards.
Sergey.

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New highs in USD/CHF not confirmed by USD//EUR. This is a recipe for disaster, view attached.

Regards,

Ahmed Farghaly